OPINION — The deadlines have passed, the water keeps dropping, and the seven Colorado River states still have no deal. Years of closed-door sessions produced zero headway. Everyone protected their political comfort zones. No one protected the river.
The basin is hotter and drier, and this is not a drought cycle. It is a smaller river. On paper, the system divides 16.5 million acre-feet between states and Mexico, but once losses are counted, total obligations push closer to 17 to 18 million acre-feet. The river now averages 12 to 13 million. In extreme years it has fallen near 6. That 4 to 5 million acre-foot structural deficit widens dramatically in dry years.
Lake Powell and Mead were designed as buffers against drought, not permanent shortfalls. Powell has dropped 32 feet in a year and hovers near minimum power pool at 3,490 feet. If it hits that mark, Glen Canyon Dam stops producing hydropower and loses its ability to move water downstream. Inflow this water year is just 52 percent of average. Under the Bureau of Reclamation's probable minimum scenario, Powell could reach that threshold by December.
